Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting4-4
- Ranger SuarezPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Moreno grounded out to shortstop, Carroll scored.2–9
- 8Wilson walked, Bohm scored, Stott to second, Castellanos to third.2–8
- 8Castellanos singled to left, Realmuto scored, Bohm to second.1–8
- 7Tawa homered to left (412 feet).0–8
- 6Barrosa homered to left center (389 feet).0–7
- 2Carroll homered to right center (428 feet), Barrosa scored and Marte scored.0–6
- 2Marte singled to center, Lawlar scored and Tawa scored, Barrosa to second.0–3
- 1Carroll grounded into fielder's choice to first, Marte scored, Perdomo out at second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 53%
- ML PHI -125 / ARI +105
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -114
- ARI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.4 – 4.1 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +1 | PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +34 Elo | PHI 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 7th of 3041–39 | Road vs home | 41–3618th of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301556 | Elo rating | 151510th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 82–73 | 80–75 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 58–62 | 33–51 |
| Underdog | 24–11 | 47–24 |
| Overs–unders | 73–82 | 79–76 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 13–13 ARI in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 26.