Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Ildemaro VargasBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 6Vargas singled to left, McCann scored.3–4
- 6McCann doubled to center, Alexander scored.3–3
- 4Bohm homered to center (412 feet).3–2
- 3Marte singled to right, McCarthy scored.2–2
- 1Carroll singled to right, Perdomo scored.2–1
- 1Realmuto hit sacrifice fly to center, Schwarber scored.2–0
- 1Schwarber doubled to left, Bader scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 51%
- ML PHI -105 / ARI -115
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- ARI: Elo 50.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -104
- PHI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.7 – 4.8 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +14 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +4 Elo | ARI 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 6th of 3041–38 | Road vs home | 40–3619th of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301557 | Elo rating | 151413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 81–73 | 80–74 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 58–62 | 33–50 |
| Underdog | 23–11 | 47–24 |
| Overs–unders | 73–81 | 79–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 13–12 ARI in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 25.