Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Eric WagamanBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Phillies- Edmundo SosaBatting3-4, 3 HR, 5 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 7Sosa homered to left (352 feet).1–11
- 7Kemp homered to left center (414 feet), Castellanos scored.1–10
- 7Bohm homered to left center (381 feet).1–8
- 7Schwarber homered to right center (468 feet).1–7
- 5Sosa homered to left (378 feet), Bohm and Kemp scored.1–6
- 4Stott homered to center (441 feet).1–3
- 4Sosa homered to center (396 feet).1–2
- 3Schwarber homered to center (408 feet).1–1
- 2Wagaman singled to left, Norby scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 60%
- ML MIA +140 / PHI -165
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 61.8%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -149
- MIA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.3 – 4.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +1 | MIA: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +84 Elo | PHI 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 60.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 4th of 3041–38 | Road vs home | 51–251st of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 30 |
| 24th of 301480 | Elo rating | 15512nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 88–69 | 82–75 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–25 | 58–64 |
| Underdog | 78–44 | 24–11 |
| Overs–unders | 80–77 | 75–82 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 17–22 PHI in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 39.