Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Kody ClemensBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Joc PedersonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Martin grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Lee scored, Vázquez to second, Clemens out at third.4–1
- 6Clemens singled to left, Outman scored, Lee to second.3–1
- 3Jeffers singled to right, Buxton scored, Martin to third.2–1
- 3Buxton grounded into fielder's choice to third, Clemens scored, Vázquez out at second.1–1
- 1Pederson homered to right center (411 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 57%
- ML MIN +120 / TEX -145
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.9 pts
- TEX: Elo 62.5%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- TEX -130
- MIN +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.0 – 4.5 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | −7 | MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.98 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +89 Elo | TEX 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.57th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 27th of 3029–46 | Road vs home | 47–318th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 26th of 301456 | Elo rating | 151513th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–82 | 79–77 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 32–50 | 35–47 |
| Underdog | 42–31 | 44–30 |
| Overs–unders | 77–79 | 70–86 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 11–6 TEX in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.