Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Bo NaylorBatting2-4, 4 RBI
- Parker MessickPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Twins- Royce LewisBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Martínez doubled to right, Kwan scored.6–2
- 9Kwan doubled to left, Fry scored.5–2
- 8Naylor singled to right, Ramírez scored and Manzardo scored.4–2
- 6Lewis singled to center, Keaschall scored.2–2
- 6Martin scored on Messick wild pitch, Keaschall to third on wild pitch by Messick.2–1
- 6Martin scored on Messick wild pitch, Keaschall to third on wild pitch by Messick.2–1
- 1Naylor singled to right, Kwan scored and Ramírez scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 51%
- ML CLE -115 / MIN -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 54.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -104
- MIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.8 – 3.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +18 | CLE: Parker Messick: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.88 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +28 Elo | CLE 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 5th of 3040–37 | Road vs home | 37–4024th of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 14th of 301509 | Elo rating | 146126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–74 | 73–79 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 26–43 | 32–48 |
| Underdog | 52–31 | 41–30 |
| Overs–unders | 69–83 | 76–76 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 23–12 MIN in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 35.