Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting2-4
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Ramírez homered to right center (368 feet), Martínez scored.3–1
- 4Noel homered to left center (411 feet).1–1
- 2Keith doubled to right, Torkelson scored, Pérez to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- DET 67%
- ML CLE +195 / DET -235
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.4 pts
- DET: Elo 53.0%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -207
- CLE +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.0 – 4.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | — | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Starter not announced |
| Elo ratings | DET +21 Elo | DET 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 5th of 3039–37 | Road vs home | 46–3110th of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 15th of 301507 | Elo rating | 151214th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–74 | 71–81 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 26–43 | 49–60 |
| Underdog | 51–31 | 22–21 |
| Overs–unders | 69–82 | 84–68 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 19–21 DET in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 40.