Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Gabriel AriasBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Casey MizePitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 10Torkelson homered to left center (401 feet), Torres scored.7–5
- 10Arias singled to right, Ramírez scored, Arias to second, Manzardo to third.7–3
- 10Ramírez hit a ground rule double, Martínez scored.6–3
- 10Martínez tripled to center, Kwan scored.5–3
- 10Kwan doubled to right, Rocchio scored.4–3
- 9Carpenter homered to center (429 feet).3–3
- 6Dingler grounded into fielder's choice to third, Greene scored, Keith out at second.3–2
- 6Naylor doubled to right, Ramírez scored, Manzardo to third.3–1
- 4Arias homered to right center (412 feet).2–1
- 3Torres homered to left (402 feet).1–1
- 2Kayfus singled to right, Jones scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 57%
- ML CLE +120 / DET -145
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- DET: Elo 51.9%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- DET -130
- CLE +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.0 – 4.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | 0 | CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.92 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +13 Elo | DET 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 8th of 3037–37 | Road vs home | 46–299th of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149429th of 30 |
| 16th of 301503 | Elo rating | 151612th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–74 | 71–79 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 26–43 | 49–58 |
| Underdog | 49–31 | 22–21 |
| Overs–unders | 68–81 | 83–67 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 17–21 DET in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 38.