Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Bo NaylorBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Tigers- Parker MeadowsBatting2-3
- Jack FlahertyPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Naylor singled to right, Ramírez scored and Schneemann scored, Manzardo to third.4–0
- 6Martínez singled to right, Arias scored.2–0
- 3Valera singled to left, Kayfus scored, Kwan to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 57%
- ML CLE +120 / DET -145
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- DET: Elo 52.0%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- DET -130
- CLE +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.5 – 4.0 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −9 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +14 Elo | DET 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–1 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 7th of 3038–37 | Road vs home | 46–3010th of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 15th of 301504 | Elo rating | 151513th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–74 | 71–80 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 26–43 | 49–59 |
| Underdog | 50–31 | 22–21 |
| Overs–unders | 69–81 | 84–67 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 18–21 DET in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 39.