Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting2-5, 4 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting1-3
- Bailey OberPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kwan singled to center, Halpin scored and Rocchio scored, Hedges to second.8–0
- 5Kayfus singled to center, Arias scored.6–0
- 5Arias doubled to center, Manzardo scored and Ramírez scored.5–0
- 5Manzardo singled to right, Schneemann scored, Ramírez to third.3–0
- 5Kwan singled to center, Rocchio scored and Halpin scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 52%
- ML CLE -120 / MIN +100
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 54.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -109
- MIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.3 – 4.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +2 | CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +30 Elo | CLE 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.627th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3042–37 | Road vs home | 37–4225th of 30 |
| 28th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 13th of 301514 | Elo rating | 145626th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–74 | 73–81 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 26–43 | 32–50 |
| Underdog | 54–31 | 41–30 |
| Overs–unders | 70–84 | 77–77 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 25–12 MIN in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 37.