Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Bo NaylorBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Twins- Austin MartinBatting2-4
- Joe RyanPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Naylor homered to right (412 feet).6–0
- 5Rocchio scored on throwing error by catcher Pereda, Kwan stole second.5–0
- 5Rocchio scored on throwing error by catcher Pereda, Kwan stole second.5–0
- 5Schneemann homered to right (368 feet).4–0
- 2Valera homered to right (359 feet).3–0
- 2Naylor homered to right center (365 feet).2–0
- 1Ramírez homered to right (388 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 53%
- ML CLE +105 / MIN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 46.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- CLE +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.6 – 3.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +2 | CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +23 Elo | CLE 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 4th of 3041–37 | Road vs home | 37–4125th of 30 |
| 28th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 14th of 301511 | Elo rating | 145926th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–74 | 73–80 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 26–43 | 32–49 |
| Underdog | 53–31 | 41–30 |
| Overs–unders | 70–83 | 77–76 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 24–12 MIN in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 36.