Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Twins- Royce LewisBatting1-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Lewis homered to left center (402 feet), Clemens scored and Martin scored.2–6
- 6Lee homered to right center (411 feet), Keaschall scored.2–3
- 3Clemens singled to left, Buxton scored.2–1
- 1Naylor hit sacrifice fly to center, Valera scored.2–0
- 1Kwan homered to right (373 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 57%
- ML CLE -145 / MIN +120
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 57.5%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -130
- MIN +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.5 – 4.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +6 | CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +52 Elo | CLE 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 19th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3043–37 | Road vs home | 37–4325th of 30 |
| 28th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 11th of 301517 | Elo rating | 145326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 81–74 | 73–82 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 27–43 | 32–50 |
| Underdog | 54–31 | 41–31 |
| Overs–unders | 70–85 | 77–78 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 26–12 MIN in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 38.