Minnesota Twins at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Christian VazquezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Phillies- Edmundo SosaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 6Marsh doubled to right, Bohm scored.1–3
- 6Vázquez homered to left (358 feet).1–2
- 5Sosa homered to left center (366 feet).0–2
- 1Bohm hit sacrifice fly to right, Schwarber scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 57%
- ML MIN +125 / PHI -150
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 63.3%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -135
- MIN +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.9 – 4.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −13 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +94 Elo | PHI 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 27th of 3031–47 | Road vs home | 53–251st of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 30 |
| 26th of 301461 | Elo rating | 15543rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–83 | 83–76 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 32–50 | 59–65 |
| Underdog | 44–32 | 24–11 |
| Overs–unders | 77–82 | 76–83 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–2 PHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.