Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Rangers- Josh SmithBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lewis singled to center, Julien scored.2–4
- 7Heim scored on Cabrera wild pitch, Smith to second on wild pitch by Cabrera, A. García to third on wild pitch by Cabrera.1–4
- 7Heim scored on Cabrera wild pitch, Smith to second on wild pitch by Cabrera, A. García to third on wild pitch by Cabrera.1–4
- 7McKinney scored on Adams wild pitch, Heim to second on wild pitch by Adams.1–3
- 7McKinney scored on Adams wild pitch, Heim to second on wild pitch by Adams.1–3
- 7McKinney singled to left, Duran scored, McKinney to second.1–2
- 4Smith homered to right center (361 feet).1–1
- 1Buxton homered to center (447 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 62%
- ML MIN +150 / TEX -180
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- TEX: Elo 61.7%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- TEX -161
- MIN +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.2 – 4.3 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −6 | MIN: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.90 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +83 Elo | TEX 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 65.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 65.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.57th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 27th of 3030–46 | Road vs home | 47–3210th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 26th of 301459 | Elo rating | 151213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–82 | 79–78 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 32–50 | 35–48 |
| Underdog | 43–31 | 44–30 |
| Overs–unders | 77–80 | 70–87 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 12–6 TEX in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 18.