Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jordan WestburgBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis GilPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rice homered to left center (401 feet).2–3
- 4Stanton singled to left, Judge scored, Bellinger to second.2–2
- 4Henderson homered to right center (355 feet).2–1
- 4Westburg homered to center (414 feet).1–1
- 1Rice homered to center (421 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 62%
- ML BAL +150 / NYY -180
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- NYY: Elo 61.8%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -161
- BAL +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.7 – 4.8 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +12 | BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +84 Elo | NYY 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 60.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.214th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.02nd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 19th of 3036–44 | Road vs home | 49–318th of 30 |
| 6th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 21st of 301486 | Elo rating | 15543rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–81 | 77–84 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 25–41 | 65–74 |
| Underdog | 55–40 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 69–92 | 78–83 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 19–19 NYY in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 38.