Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Coby MayoBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cam SchlittlerPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Mayo homered to left center (389 feet).1–6
- 5Bellinger hit sacrifice fly to center, Rice scored.0–6
- 5Judge singled to center, Grisham scored and McMahon scored, Judge to second, Rice to third.0–5
- 2McMahon homered to center (401 feet).0–3
- 2Stanton homered to center (427 feet).0–2
- 1Judge homered to left center (383 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 67%
- ML BAL +195 / NYY -235
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- NYY: Elo 63.1%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- NYY -207
- BAL +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.5 – 5.0 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +3 | BAL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +93 Elo | NYY 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 65.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.02nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 19th of 3036–43 | Road vs home | 48–318th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 21st of 301487 | Elo rating | 15534th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–80 | 76–84 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–41 | 64–74 |
| Underdog | 55–39 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 69–91 | 78–82 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 19–18 NYY in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 37.