Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Luke KeaschallBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting2-4
- Trevor RogersPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Keaschall hit sacrifice fly to left, Buxton scored.1–2
- 7Alexander singled to center, O'Neill scored.0–2
- 7Cowser hit sacrifice fly to left, Basallo scored, O'Neill to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 57%
- ML MIN +120 / BAL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- BAL: Elo 55.6%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- BAL -130
- MIN +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.0 – 4.5 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +9 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +39 Elo | BAL 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 27th of 3032–49 | Road vs home | 39–4222nd of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15043rd of 30 |
| 26th of 301472 | Elo rating | 148921st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  MIN |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–84 | 81–81 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 32–50 | 25–41 |
| Underdog | 46–33 | 56–40 |
| Overs–unders | 77–85 | 69–93 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 8–10 BAL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 18.