Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Royce LewisBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Orioles- Jeremiah JacksonBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Clemens singled to center, Lewis scored.4–1
- 5Lewis homered to left (378 feet), Larnach scored.3–1
- 4Bell hit sacrifice fly to left, Buxton scored.1–1
- 2Jackson singled to left, Cowser scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 60%
- ML MIN +141 / BAL -171
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- BAL: Elo 59.2%, market 60.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -152
- MIN +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.3 – 4.2 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +13 | MIN: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +65 Elo | BAL 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 60.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 27th of 3032–49 | Road vs home | 39–4222nd of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15043rd of 30 |
| 26th of 301471 | Elo rating | 148921st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  MIN |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–84 | 81–81 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 32–50 | 25–41 |
| Underdog | 46–33 | 56–40 |
| Overs–unders | 77–85 | 69–93 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 8–11 BAL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 19.