Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fortes doubled to center, DeLuca scored.3–2
- 7DeLuca homered to left center (438 feet).2–2
- 6Contreras homered to center (415 feet), Turang scored.1–2
- 1Díaz homered to left (362 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 59%
- ML TB +135 / MIL -163
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 59.9%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -146
- TB +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.6 – 4.4 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −1 | TB: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +70 Elo | MIL 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 307.7 | Runs scored | 9.71st of 30 |
| 28th of 307.3 | Runs allowed | 3.38th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +6.31st of 30 |
| 7th of 151–2 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 16 |
| 24th of 301481 | Opponent Elo | 144829th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Elo rating | 15482nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  TB |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 81–81 | 94–77 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 29–50 | 48–54 |
| Underdog | 52–31 | 46–23 |
| Overs–unders | 75–87 | 83–88 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 5–4 MIL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.