Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
MLB games
Updated

Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast

FinalLAD win series 4-0

Away

Brewers

97-65

1–5

at

Home

Dodgers

93-69

MIL 37%LAD 63%

You didn't pick this one.

Dodger Stadium · TBS, truTV, HBO Max

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.

LAD75%50%75%MILStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Brewers
  • Jackson ChourioBatting2-4
  • Chad PatrickPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Dodgers
  • Shohei OhtaniBatting3-3, 3 HR, 3 RBI
  • Shohei OhtaniPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K

Scoring summary

  • 8Turang grounded into fielder's choice to second, Durbin scored, Monasterio out at second.1–5
  • 7Ohtani homered to center (427 feet).0–5
  • 4Ohtani homered to right center (469 feet).0–4
  • 1T. Hernández grounded out to first, Smith scored, Edman to second.0–3
  • 1Edman singled to center, Betts scored, Smith to third.0–2
  • 1Ohtani homered to right (446 feet).0–1

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Dodgers 63%

SolidHit
MIL 37%LAD 63%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.

Market
LAD 63%
ML MIL +160 / LAD -190
Pre-line forecast
LAD 59%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
LAD 52%
Ratings vs. market
−10.5 pts
LAD: Elo 52.5%, market 63.0%
Fair odds
LAD -170
MIL +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
MIL 3.7 – 4.8 LAD
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMILLADWhy
Team rating15591569Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−3−14MIL: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsLAD +17 EloLAD 52.5%
Market-implied ratingsLAD 59.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastLAD 58.8%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastLAD 63.0%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

Try another venue →
Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers compared, with each team's league rank
MILStatLAD
3rd of 305.0Runs scored5.12nd of 30
3rd of 303.9Runs allowed4.212th of 30
1st of 30+1.1Margin+0.94th of 30
17th of 304–6Last 108–22nd of 30
1st of 3045–36Road vs home52–293rd of 30
22nd of 301497Opponent Elo149330th of 30
2nd of 301559Elo rating15691st of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BrewersDodgers
1500155016001650AprAugDecAprAug

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonMILLAD
Run line94–7676–95
Last 106–47–3
Favorite48–5458–86
Underdog46–2218–9
Overs–unders83–8786–85
Overs–unders, last 104–64–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

MIL 10–12 LAD in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 22.