Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting0-3, 1 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Chourio hit sacrifice fly to center, Collins scored, Lockridge to third.2–1
- 9Betts walked, Muncy scored, Ohtani to second, E. Hernández to third.2–0
- 6Freeman homered to right (362 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 59%
- ML LAD -160 / MIL +130
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 50.2%, market 58.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -142
- MIL +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.1 – 3.4 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −9 | LAD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Aaron Ashby: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +1 Elo | LAD 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 58.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +1.11st of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 12th of 3039–40 | Road vs home | 52–293rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 1st of 301564 | Elo rating | 15642nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–94 | 93–74 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 56–85 | 48–54 |
| Underdog | 18–9 | 45–20 |
| Overs–unders | 86–82 | 83–84 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 9–10 MIL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 19.