Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Sal StewartBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting4-5, 3 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Stephenson hit sacrifice fly to left, Hays scored.4–8
- 8Stewart singled to right, Lux scored, Hays to second.3–8
- 7Betts doubled to left, Rojas scored, Ohtani to third.2–8
- 6T. Hernández doubled to center, Ohtani scored and Betts scored, Freeman to third.2–7
- 6Betts doubled to left, Rortvedt scored, Ohtani to third.2–5
- 6Ohtani singled to right, E. Hernández scored, Rortvedt to third.2–4
- 4Rojas singled to right, E. Hernández scored.2–3
- 4E. Hernández doubled to center, Muncy scored.2–2
- 3Betts singled to center, Rortvedt scored.2–1
- 1Stewart singled to right, Lux scored and Hays scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 70%
- ML CIN +225 / LAD -275
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 62.0%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -238
- CIN +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 2.8 – 4.7 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +4 | CIN: Zack Littell: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +85 Elo | LAD 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 67.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 66.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 16th of 3038–43 | Road vs home | 52–293rd of 30 |
| 9th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149330th of 30 |
| 16th of 301506 | Elo rating | 15622nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–80 | 71–92 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 25–50 | 55–83 |
| Underdog | 57–30 | 16–9 |
| Overs–unders | 66–97 | 83–80 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 9–11 LAD in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 20.