Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8De La Cruz walked, Andujar scored, Steer to second, Stewart to third.5–10
- 8Steer singled to center, Marte scored, Stewart to second, Andujar to third.4–10
- 8Stewart walked, McLain scored, Andujar to second, Marte to third.3–10
- 7Rortvedt singled to left, Call scored.2–10
- 7Call singled to right, Rojas scored on throwing error by right fielder Marte, Call to third.2–9
- 7Stephenson doubled to left, De La Cruz scored.2–8
- 7De La Cruz grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Hays scored, Steer out at second.1–8
- 6Ohtani homered to right center (454 feet), E. Hernández scored.0–8
- 5T. Hernández homered to right center (390 feet).0–6
- 3Edman homered to right (388 feet).0–5
- 3T. Hernández homered to left (390 feet), Freeman scored and Muncy scored.0–4
- 1Ohtani homered to right (375 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 63%
- ML CIN +160 / LAD -190
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- LAD: Elo 61.8%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- LAD -170
- CIN +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.2 – 4.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +16 | CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +84 Elo | LAD 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 16th of 3038–43 | Road vs home | 52–293rd of 30 |
| 9th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149330th of 30 |
| 15th of 301508 | Elo rating | 15602nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–79 | 70–92 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–50 | 54–83 |
| Underdog | 57–29 | 16–9 |
| Overs–unders | 65–97 | 82–80 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 9–10 LAD in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.