Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Spencer HorwitzBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting4-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 11Horwitz doubled to right, Reynolds scored.4–3
- 10Lux hit sacrifice fly to center, Friedl scored.3–3
- 10Suwinski hit a ground rule double, Yorke scored.3–2
- 9Stephenson homered to left center (405 feet).2–2
- 8Marte homered to left (408 feet).2–1
- 6Horwitz singled to left, Reynolds scored, Horwitz to second.2–0
- 4Horwitz doubled to right, Reynolds scored, Horwitz thrown out at third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 54%
- ML PIT +110 / CIN -130
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- CIN: Elo 55.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.1 – 3.4 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +4 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +35 Elo | CIN 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 29th of 3024–52 | Road vs home | 44–3414th of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 25th of 301474 | Elo rating | 150516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–74 | 81–76 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 19–31 | 25–48 |
| Underdog | 64–43 | 55–28 |
| Overs–unders | 64–93 | 63–94 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 21–16 CIN in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 37.