Athletics at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Butler homered to right center (424 feet), Cortes scored and Gelof scored.4–3
- 4Kurtz homered to right (363 feet).1–3
- 1N. Gonzales hit sacrifice fly to center, Reynolds scored.0–3
- 1Reynolds singled to left, Horwitz scored, Reynolds to second.0–2
- 1Horwitz doubled to right, Triolo scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 50%
- ML ATH -110 / PIT -110
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- PIT: Elo 50.5%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- PIT -100
- ATH -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.3 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −8 | ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +4 Elo | PIT 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 8th of 3039–39 | Road vs home | 42–3616th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301484 | Elo rating | 146825th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 86–67 | 80–73 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–22 | 17–30 |
| Underdog | 68–45 | 63–43 |
| Overs–unders | 79–74 | 63–90 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 5–1 PIT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.
