Athletics at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting2-4
- Osvaldo BidoPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Jared TrioloBatting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Mike BurrowsPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Horwitz grounded out to first, Triolo scored, Canario to second.0–11
- 5Bart homered to left (420 feet), McCutchen scored and Suwinski scored.0–10
- 4Triolo singled to center, Cruz scored.0–7
- 4Cruz singled to right, Bart scored on error and Yorke scored on error, Cruz safe at second on fielding error by right fielder Cortes.0–6
- 2Triolo homered to left center (402 feet), Yorke scored.0–4
- 1N. Gonzales doubled to right, Horwitz scored, McCutchen to third.0–2
- 1McCutchen singled to right, Reynolds scored, Horwitz to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 52%
- ML ATH +100 / PIT -120
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- PIT: Elo 50.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -109
- ATH +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.2 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −5 | ATH: Mitch Spence: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mike Burrows: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +2 Elo | PIT 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.530th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 10th of 3040–40 | Road vs home | 43–3716th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301483 | Elo rating | 146925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 87–68 | 81–74 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–22 | 18–31 |
| Underdog | 69–46 | 63–43 |
| Overs–unders | 79–76 | 63–92 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 6–2 PIT in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.
