Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Miguel AndujarBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Stephenson hit sacrifice fly to center, Andujar scored.3–1
- 6Andujar singled to center, Lux scored.2–1
- 4Steer singled to left, Lux scored, Andujar to second.1–1
- 3Turang singled to center, Yelich scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 60%
- ML CIN +140 / MIL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 64.7%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- MIL -149
- CIN +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.3 – 4.2 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +15 | CIN: Zack Littell: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Quinn Priester: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +105 Elo | MIL 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 61.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.11st of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 18th of 3036–42 | Road vs home | 51–273rd of 30 |
| 11th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 16th of 301505 | Elo rating | 15661st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 81–78 | 88–71 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–50 | 44–51 |
| Underdog | 55–28 | 44–20 |
| Overs–unders | 64–95 | 79–80 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 10–26 MIL in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 36.