Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting1-4
- Bruce ZimmermannPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Padres- Ryan O'HearnBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Iglesias homered to left center (405 feet).0–7
- 2Arraez homered to right, McCoy scored.0–6
- 1O'Hearn homered to right (366 feet), Arraez scored, Sheets scored and Laureano scored.0–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 53%
- ML MIL -125 / SD +105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 52.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -114
- SD +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.4 – 4.1 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −1 | MIL: Bruce Zimmermann (no track record yet) · SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +17 Elo | MIL 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.92nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 1st of 3044–35 | Road vs home | 48–286th of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149627th of 30 |
| 1st of 301567 | Elo rating | 15259th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 87–70 | 85–72 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 44–50 | 39–51 |
| Underdog | 43–20 | 46–21 |
| Overs–unders | 79–78 | 69–88 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 9–9 SD in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.