Los Angeles Dodgers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-3
- Bryce MillerPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Suárez grounded out to third, Arozarena scored, Ford to second.6–1
- 8Pages singled to left, Rushing scored.6–0
- 7Ohtani homered to center (412 feet).5–0
- 3Freeman homered to left center (382 feet), Ohtani scored.4–0
- 2Kim homered to right center (409 feet), Conforto scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 55%
- ML LAD -135 / SEA +115
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 49.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -124
- SEA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.0 – 3.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −2 | LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +1 Elo | SEA 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 13th of 3038–40 | Road vs home | 51–294th of 30 |
| 30th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301557 | Elo rating | 15376th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–92 | 70–91 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 53–83 | 36–68 |
| Underdog | 16–9 | 34–23 |
| Overs–unders | 82–79 | 90–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 8–0 SEA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.