Colorado Rockies at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Blaine CrimBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner GordonPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching7.1 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Goodman grounded out to catcher, Arcia scored, Moniak to third.2–9
- 8Raleigh homered to right (389 feet).1–9
- 7Suárez homered to right (358 feet).1–8
- 4Naylor singled to center, Crawford scored, Rodríguez to third.1–7
- 4Arozarena hit sacrifice fly to right, Robles scored.1–6
- 4Crim homered to center (412 feet).1–5
- 2Raleigh doubled to right, Robles scored and Canzone scored.0–5
- 1Polanco homered to right (360 feet).0–3
- 1Rodríguez homered to left (422 feet).0–2
- 1Raleigh homered to right (438 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 73%
- ML COL +250 / SEA -310
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- SEA: Elo 74.1%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -265
- COL +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.7 – 4.8 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1371 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | 0 | COL: Tanner Gordon: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +182 Elo | SEA 74.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 72.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 72.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.3 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.6 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 30th of 3018–58 | Road vs home | 49–274th of 30 |
| 1st of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 30th of 301371 | Elo rating | 15375th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–82 | 68–89 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 34–66 |
| Underdog | 72–78 | 34–23 |
| Overs–unders | 72–85 | 87–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 1–6 SEA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.