Colorado Rockies at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- McCade BrownPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Mariners- Josh NaylorBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Naylor doubled to center, Raley scored, Rodríguez scored and Crawford scored.3–4
- 6Tovar singled to right, Moniak scored and Crim scored, Tovar to second.3–1
- 5Canzone homered to right (383 feet).1–1
- 2Karros reached on infield single to second, Beck scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 73%
- ML COL +250 / SEA -310
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- SEA: Elo 72.1%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -265
- COL +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.2 – 5.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1372 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −6 | COL: McCade Brown: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +165 Elo | SEA 72.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 70.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 70.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.3 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.6 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 30th of 3018–57 | Road vs home | 48–275th of 30 |
| 1st of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 30th of 301372 | Elo rating | 15365th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–82 | 68–88 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 34–65 |
| Underdog | 71–78 | 34–23 |
| Overs–unders | 72–84 | 87–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 1–5 SEA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.