Los Angeles Angels at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting2-4
- German MarquezPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Trout homered to center (485 feet).3–0
- 6Schanuel homered to right center (409 feet).2–0
- 2Ward homered to left center (410 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 53%
- ML LAA -125 / COL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.5 pts
- LAA: Elo 59.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- LAA -114
- COL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 5.9 – 5.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1372 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −13 | LAA: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: German Marquez: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +68 Elo | LAA 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.829th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 6.430th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 26th of 3032–47 | Road vs home | 24–5530th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15101st of 30 |
| 27th of 301442 | Elo rating | 137230th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–77 | 73–81 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 12–32 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 65–45 | 71–77 |
| Overs–unders | 86–68 | 72–82 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 2–5 COL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.