Los Angeles Angels at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Christian MooreBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitch FarrisPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Tyler FreemanBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Bradley BlalockPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Tovar hit sacrifice fly to left, Doyle scored.6–7
- 5Doyle singled to center, Goodman scored on fielding error by center fielder Teodosio and Moniak scored, Doyle to second.6–6
- 5Crim hit sacrifice fly to center, Freeman scored, Goodman to second, Moniak to third.6–4
- 5Moncada hit sacrifice fly to center, Schanuel scored.6–3
- 5Schanuel doubled to right, Guzman scored and Teodosio scored.5–3
- 2Freeman singled to right, Tovar scored, Karros to third.3–3
- 2Guzman homered to left (415 feet).3–2
- 2Moore homered to left (430 feet), Adell scored.2–2
- 1Crim hit sacrifice fly to center, Goodman scored.0–2
- 1Goodman tripled to center, Freeman scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 52%
- ML LAA -120 / COL +100
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.5 pts
- LAA: Elo 62.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- LAA -109
- COL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 5.8 – 5.7 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1370 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −21 | LAA: Mitch Farris: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · COL: Bradley Blalock: team allows 1.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +90 Elo | LAA 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 57.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.829th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 6.430th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 24th of 3032–46 | Road vs home | 23–5530th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15101st of 30 |
| 27th of 301443 | Elo rating | 137030th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–76 | 72–81 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 12–31 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 65–45 | 70–77 |
| Overs–unders | 85–68 | 71–82 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 2–4 COL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.