Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- George KirbyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Peña homered to left (340 feet), Diaz scored, Sánchez scored and Smith scored.6–4
- 7Polanco doubled to right, Suárez scored.6–0
- 5Canzone singled to right, Rodríguez scored, Naylor to second, Polanco to third.5–0
- 5Naylor walked, Raleigh scored, Polanco to second, Rodríguez to third.4–0
- 3Raleigh homered to right center (399 feet).3–0
- 2Robles hit sacrifice fly to left, Naylor scored.2–0
- 1Suárez doubled to center, Rodríguez scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 51%
- ML SEA -115 / HOU -110
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- SEA: Elo 51.2%, market 50.5%
- Fair odds
- SEA -102
- HOU +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.8 – 3.7 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −1 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +8 Elo | SEA 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 50.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 13th of 3037–41 | Road vs home | 46–3312th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 6th of 301532 | Elo rating | 151314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–88 | 77–77 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 33–65 | 34–60 |
| Underdog | 33–23 | 43–17 |
| Overs–unders | 85–69 | 72–82 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 23–14 HOU in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 37.