Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Josh NaylorBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Astros- Carlos CorreaBatting1-4
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Naylor homered to right center (395 feet).4–0
- 7Robles homered to left (392 feet).3–0
- 4Suárez homered to left center (425 feet).2–0
- 1Rodríguez homered to left (366 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 50%
- ML SEA -110 / HOU -110
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 51.6%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -100
- SEA -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.8 – 3.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +18 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.88 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +11 Elo | HOU 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 14th of 3036–41 | Road vs home | 46–3210th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 6th of 301530 | Elo rating | 151513th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–88 | 77–76 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 33–65 | 34–59 |
| Underdog | 32–23 | 43–17 |
| Overs–unders | 85–68 | 72–81 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 22–14 HOU in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 36.