Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Astros- Zach ColeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- AJ BlubaughPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Paredes homered to left center (369 feet).7–3
- 7Altuve singled to right, Cole scored, Dubón to third.7–2
- 3Cole homered to right center (443 feet).7–1
- 2Raleigh homered to right (351 feet), Arozarena scored.7–0
- 2Crawford homered to right (365 feet), Suárez scored, Canzone scored and Robles scored.5–0
- 2Robles walked, Polanco scored, Canzone to second, Suárez to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 58%
- ML SEA -155 / HOU +130
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.9 pts
- SEA: Elo 49.4%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -140
- HOU +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.6 – 3.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +8 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Jason Alexander: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +4 Elo | HOU 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 13th of 3038–41 | Road vs home | 46–3412th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 6th of 301534 | Elo rating | 151114th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–88 | 77–78 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 33–65 | 34–61 |
| Underdog | 34–23 | 43–17 |
| Overs–unders | 86–69 | 73–82 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 24–14 HOU in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 38.