Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Diamondbacks- Adrian Del CastilloBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Perdomo singled to left, Tawa scored.4–5
- 9Barrosa hit sacrifice fly to left, Vargas scored.4–4
- 7Del Castillo homered to right (405 feet), McCann scored.4–3
- 7McCann doubled to center, Vargas scored.4–1
- 7Rortvedt homered to right center (393 feet).4–0
- 6T. Hernández tripled to center, Ohtani scored and Freeman scored.3–0
- 2T. Hernández homered to left center (380 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 59%
- ML LAD -160 / ARI +135
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 51.4%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -145
- ARI +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.7 – 3.8 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −7 | LAD: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +9 Elo | LAD 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 17th of 3034–39 | Road vs home | 42–3618th of 30 |
| 30th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301551 | Elo rating | 151910th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–90 | 81–75 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 52–81 | 33–51 |
| Underdog | 14–9 | 48–24 |
| Overs–unders | 79–77 | 80–76 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 20–19 ARI in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 39.