Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Andy PagesBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting3-5
- Ryne NelsonPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 11Edman singled to center, Freeman scored.5–4
- 8Del Castillo hit sacrifice fly to center, Carroll scored.4–4
- 8Moreno reached on infield single to catcher, Perdomo scored, Carroll to third.4–3
- 8Carroll doubled to right, Marte scored, Perdomo to third.4–2
- 8T. Hernández doubled to center, Betts scored on error, T. Hernández safe at third on fielding error by shortstop Perdomo.4–1
- 4Pages homered to left center (395 feet), Edman scored.3–1
- 1Moreno hit sacrifice fly to left, Marte scored.1–1
- 1Betts hit sacrifice fly to right, Ohtani scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 57%
- ML LAD -145 / ARI +120
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 55.4%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -130
- ARI +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.5 – 4.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +20 | −5 | LAD: Blake Snell: team allows 1.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +38 Elo | LAD 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 20th of 3034–40 | Road vs home | 43–3616th of 30 |
| 30th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301550 | Elo rating | 152010th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–91 | 82–75 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 52–82 | 33–51 |
| Underdog | 14–9 | 49–24 |
| Overs–unders | 80–77 | 81–76 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 20–20 ARI in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 40.