Los Angeles Dodgers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Dalton RushingBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Mariners- Jorge PolancoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9E. Hernández doubled to left, Call scored and Conforto scored.5–3
- 7Conforto scored on Evans wild pitch, E. Hernández to second on wild pitch by Evans.3–3
- 7Conforto scored on Evans wild pitch, E. Hernández to second on wild pitch by Evans.3–3
- 5Polanco homered to left (357 feet), Raleigh scored and Rodríguez scored.2–3
- 5Rushing homered to right (383 feet), Rojas scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 55%
- ML LAD +115 / SEA -135
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- SEA: Elo 50.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -124
- LAD +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 3.0 – 3.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +3 | LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +3 Elo | SEA 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 14th of 3037–40 | Road vs home | 51–283rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149527th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301556 | Elo rating | 15385th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–92 | 70–90 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 53–83 | 36–67 |
| Underdog | 15–9 | 34–23 |
| Overs–unders | 81–79 | 89–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 7–0 SEA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.