Los Angeles Dodgers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Enrique HernandezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin WrobleskiPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting2-4
- George KirbyPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Canzone singled to right, Garver scored, Raley to third.3–2
- 6Rushing singled to right, Conforto scored, T. Hernández to second.3–1
- 3E. Hernández homered to left (386 feet), Rushing scored.2–1
- 1Rodríguez safe at first on fielding error by left fielder Conforto, Arozarena scored, Rodríguez safe at second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML LAD +120 / SEA -145
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 51.5%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -130
- LAD +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 3.0 – 3.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +7 | LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +10 Elo | SEA 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 16th of 3036–40 | Road vs home | 51–273rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149527th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301555 | Elo rating | 15395th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–92 | 70–89 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 53–83 | 36–66 |
| Underdog | 14–9 | 34–23 |
| Overs–unders | 81–78 | 89–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 6–0 SEA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.