Colorado Rockies at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Bradley BlalockPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Mariners- Eugenio SuarezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Goodman singled to left, Karros scored, Ritter to second.2–6
- 6Tovar singled to right, Crim scored.1–6
- 5Suárez singled to left, Naylor scored.0–6
- 4Arozarena singled to center, Canzone scored and Garver scored, Rivas to third.0–5
- 4Canzone grounded into fielder's choice to second, Naylor scored, Suárez out at second.0–3
- 2Suárez homered to left (415 feet), Polanco scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 73%
- ML COL +250 / SEA -310
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- SEA: Elo 74.1%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -265
- COL +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.7 – 4.8 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1370 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −21 | COL: Bradley Blalock: team allows 0.85 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 1.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +182 Elo | SEA 74.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 68.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 69.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.3 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.6 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 30th of 3018–59 | Road vs home | 50–274th of 30 |
| 1st of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149527th of 30 |
| 30th of 301370 | Elo rating | 15385th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–83 | 69–89 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 35–66 |
| Underdog | 72–79 | 34–23 |
| Overs–unders | 73–85 | 88–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 1–7 SEA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.