Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Danny JansenBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching2.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 4Vaughn doubled to center, Chourio scored, Turang to third.2–4
- 4Jansen homered to left (382 feet), Collins scored.2–3
- 3Turang doubled to center, Chourio scored.2–1
- 3Friedl homered to right center (415 feet).2–0
- 2De La Cruz homered to center (413 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 55%
- ML CIN +115 / MIL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 59.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -124
- CIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.5 – 4.0 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +3 | CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +63 Elo | MIL 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 60.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.11st of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 16th of 3038–42 | Road vs home | 51–294th of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301510 | Elo rating | 15611st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–78 | 88–73 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 25–50 | 44–53 |
| Underdog | 57–28 | 44–20 |
| Overs–unders | 65–96 | 80–81 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 12–26 MIL in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 38.