Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Sal StewartBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Robert GasserPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Bauers singled to left, Vaughn scored, Collins to second.7–4
- 6Chourio homered to center (411 feet).7–3
- 6Stewart homered to right center (387 feet).7–2
- 3Turang doubled to left, Ortiz scored.6–2
- 3Yelich grounded out to second, Jansen scored, Ortiz to third.6–1
- 3Friedl singled to left, Hayes scored, Stephenson scored and McLain scored on throwing error by left fielder Collins, Friedl to second.6–0
- 3McLain walked, Stewart scored, Hayes to second, Stephenson to third.3–0
- 3Hayes reached on infield single to pitcher, Andujar scored, Stephenson to second, Stewart to third.2–0
- 3Stewart singled to center, Marte scored, Andujar to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 55%
- ML CIN +115 / MIL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 59.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -124
- CIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.0 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +2 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Robert Gasser: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +70 Elo | MIL 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.11st of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 16th of 3037–42 | Road vs home | 51–283rd of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 15th of 301507 | Elo rating | 15631st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 82–78 | 88–72 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–50 | 44–52 |
| Underdog | 56–28 | 44–20 |
| Overs–unders | 64–96 | 79–81 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 11–26 MIL in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 37.