Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Turang homered to center (416 feet).1–3
- 4Vaughn homered to left (383 feet).1–2
- 2Suzuki homered to right center (390 feet).1–1
- 1Contreras homered to left center (389 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 57%
- ML CHC +120 / MIL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 56.9%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- MIL -130
- CHC +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.5 – 4.0 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | 0 | CHC: Drew Pomeranz: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIL: Trevor Megill: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +49 Elo | MIL 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +1.11st of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 4th of 3042–39 | Road vs home | 52–293rd of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 5th of 301540 | Elo rating | 15632nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–89 | 92–74 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 52–61 | 47–54 |
| Underdog | 28–28 | 45–20 |
| Overs–unders | 84–85 | 83–83 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 20–23 MIL in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 43.
- Oct 9MIL 0 @ CHC 6PlayoffsPicked MIL 52%Miss
- Oct 8MIL 3 @ CHC 4PlayoffsPicked CHC 50%Hit
- Oct 6CHC 3 @ MIL 7PlayoffsPicked MIL 55%Hit
- Oct 4CHC 3 @ MIL 9PlayoffsPicked MIL 57%Hit
- Aug 21MIL 4 @ CHC 1Picked CHC 56%Miss
- Aug 20MIL 3 @ CHC 4Picked MIL 53%Miss
- Aug 19MIL 1 @ CHC 4Picked MIL 53%Miss
- Aug 19MIL 4 @ CHC 6Picked CHC 58%Hit