Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Chourio homered to center (419 feet), Durbin scored and Ortiz scored.3–7
- 3Contreras homered to left (411 feet).3–4
- 1Vaughn homered to left (382 feet), Contreras scored and Yelich scored.3–3
- 1Suzuki homered to left center (440 feet), Hoerner scored and Tucker scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 55%
- ML CHC +115 / MIL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 55.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -124
- CHC +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.5 – 4.0 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −12 | CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Aaron Ashby: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +41 Elo | MIL 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +1.11st of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 4th of 3042–39 | Road vs home | 52–293rd of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 6th of 301538 | Elo rating | 15652nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–87 | 90–73 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 52–60 | 46–53 |
| Underdog | 27–27 | 44–20 |
| Overs–unders | 82–84 | 81–82 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 18–22 MIL in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 40.
- Oct 4CHC 3 @ MIL 9PlayoffsPicked MIL 57%Hit
- Aug 21MIL 4 @ CHC 1Picked CHC 56%Miss
- Aug 20MIL 3 @ CHC 4Picked MIL 53%Miss
- Aug 19MIL 1 @ CHC 4Picked MIL 53%Miss
- Aug 19MIL 4 @ CHC 6Picked CHC 58%Hit
- Aug 18MIL 7 @ CHC 0Picked CHC 52%Miss
- Jul 30CHC 10 @ MIL 3Picked MIL 52%Miss
- Jul 29CHC 3 @ MIL 9Picked MIL 54%Hit