San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting1-4
- Shota ImanagaPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Machado homered to left (403 feet), Tatis Jr. scored.3–0
- 1Merrill hit sacrifice fly to right, Tatis Jr. scored, Arraez to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 51%
- ML SD -105 / CHC -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- CHC: Elo 52.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -104
- SD +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.2 – 3.3 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −9 | SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Andrew Kittredge (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +14 Elo | CHC 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 16th of 3038–43 | Road vs home | 50–296th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 8th of 301533 | Elo rating | 15415th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 89–74 | 78–85 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 42–52 | 51–59 |
| Underdog | 47–22 | 27–26 |
| Overs–unders | 71–92 | 81–82 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 10–10 CHC in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 20.