Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael KingPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Perdomo homered to left (406 feet).1–5
- 2Díaz homered to left center (390 feet), O'Hearn scored.0–5
- 1Bogaerts homered to left (424 feet), Arraez scored.0–3
- 1Tatis Jr. homered to left (413 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 59%
- ML ARI +135 / SD -165
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- SD: Elo 53.5%, market 59.4%
- Fair odds
- SD -146
- ARI +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.3 – 4.2 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −6 | ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Michael King: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +24 Elo | SD 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 59.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.92nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 17th of 3037–42 | Road vs home | 50–296th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 12th of 301514 | Elo rating | 15299th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–77 | 87–73 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 33–51 | 40–52 |
| Underdog | 50–26 | 47–21 |
| Overs–unders | 83–77 | 70–90 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 18–19 SD in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 37.