Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Merrill singled to right, Arraez scored, Machado to second.4–7
- 8Vargas walked, Alexander scored, Tawa to second, Del Castillo to third.4–6
- 8Tawa walked, Marte scored, Del Castillo to second, Alexander to third.3–6
- 5Cronenworth walked, Machado scored, Sheets to second, Bogaerts to third.2–6
- 4Tatis Jr. homered to left center (409 feet), Sheets scored, O'Hearn scored and Fermin scored.2–5
- 4O'Hearn singled to right, Bogaerts scored, Sheets to third.2–1
- 3McCarthy homered to right (423 feet).2–0
- 1Marte homered to right center (410 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 54%
- ML ARI +110 / SD -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- SD: Elo 52.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -119
- ARI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.6 – 3.9 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +2 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +18 Elo | SD 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 14th of 3037–41 | Road vs home | 49–296th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 10th of 301516 | Elo rating | 15279th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–76 | 86–73 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 33–51 | 39–52 |
| Underdog | 50–25 | 47–21 |
| Overs–unders | 82–77 | 69–90 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 18–18 SD in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 36.