Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- JP SearsPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Barrosa scored on error and Lawlar scored on error, Perdomo safe at first on fielding error by first baseman O'Hearn.4–12
- 7Iglesias doubled to left, Cronenworth scored and Sheets scored.2–12
- 7Cronenworth singled to center, Merrill scored, Sheets to second.2–10
- 5Sheets grounded into fielder's choice to second, Wagner scored, McCoy out at second, Merrill to third.2–9
- 5Merrill doubled to right, Johnson scored and O'Hearn scored, Wagner to third.2–8
- 3Machado homered to left (377 feet).2–6
- 3Tawa grounded into double play, third to second to first, Lawlar scored, Perdomo out at second.2–5
- 1Cronenworth hit sacrifice fly to left, Bogaerts scored.1–5
- 1Bogaerts doubled to left, Machado scored and Merrill scored.1–4
- 1Merrill doubled to right, O'Hearn scored, Machado to third.1–2
- 1Machado singled to center, Tatis Jr. scored, O'Hearn to second.1–1
- 1Marte homered to left (380 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 55%
- ML ARI +115 / SD -135
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- SD: Elo 54.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -124
- ARI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.5 – 4.0 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −11 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: JP Sears: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +34 Elo | SD 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 18th of 3037–43 | Road vs home | 51–294th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 13th of 301511 | Elo rating | 15319th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–78 | 88–73 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 33–51 | 41–52 |
| Underdog | 50–27 | 47–21 |
| Overs–unders | 83–78 | 70–91 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 18–20 SD in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 38.