San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jeremiah EstradaPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Merrill homered to right center (369 feet).1–3
- 7Busch homered to right center (400 feet).0–3
- 2Swanson walked, Suzuki scored, Crow-Armstrong to second, Kelly to third.0–2
- 2Crow-Armstrong singled to center, Tucker scored, Kelly to second, Suzuki to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 51%
- ML SD -105 / CHC -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- CHC: Elo 54.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -104
- SD +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.7 – 3.8 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +12 | SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +31 Elo | CHC 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 16th of 3038–43 | Road vs home | 50–296th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 6th of 301535 | Elo rating | 15395th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 90–74 | 78–86 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 42–52 | 51–60 |
| Underdog | 48–22 | 27–26 |
| Overs–unders | 71–93 | 81–83 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 11–10 CHC in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 21.