Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting3-3, 3 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hoerner homered to left (404 feet).3–9
- 6Happ homered to center (415 feet).2–9
- 2Chourio reached on infield single to third, Vaughn scored, Ortiz to second, Durbin to third.1–9
- 2Durbin singled to center, Contreras scored and Yelich scored, Vaughn to second.1–8
- 1Chourio singled to left, Frelick scored and Perkins scored, Ortiz to second.1–6
- 1Perkins singled to center, Vaughn scored, Frelick to third.1–4
- 1Frelick safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Hoerner, Contreras scored, Vaughn to second.1–3
- 1Contreras doubled to center, Turang scored.1–2
- 1Turang doubled to right, Chourio scored.1–1
- 1Busch homered to right center (385 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 57%
- ML CHC +120 / MIL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 55.7%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- MIL -130
- CHC +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.5 – 4.0 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +5 | CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +40 Elo | MIL 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +1.11st of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 4th of 3042–39 | Road vs home | 52–293rd of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 5th of 301540 | Elo rating | 15622nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–86 | 89–73 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 52–60 | 45–53 |
| Underdog | 27–26 | 44–20 |
| Overs–unders | 81–84 | 80–82 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 18–21 MIL in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 39.